This DfE report investigates the link between different 5 percentage point bandings of attendance and attainment for pupils at the end of Key Stage 2 (KS2) and Key Stage 4 (KS4) in state-funded mainstream schools in 2022/23.
Absence from school is not the only factor that is likely to affect a pupil’s level of attainment. There are a range of pupil, school, parental and societal characteristics that are likely to affect attainment in varying degrees.
The report found that pupils with higher attendance rates were significantly more likely to achieve successful outcomes. At KS2, pupils attending school nearly every day (95-100% attendance) were 1.3 times more likely to reach the expected standard in reading, writing, and maths compared to those attending 90-95% of the time. This means missing just 10 days of Year 6 reduced the likelihood of reaching the expected standard by around 25%.
The impact was even more pronounced at KS4. Pupils with near-perfect attendance (95-100%) were 1.9 times more likely to achieve a Grade 5 in English and Maths GCSE compared to those attending 90-95% of the time. This translates to missing just 10 days of Year 11 reducing the likelihood of achieving a Grade 5 by approximately 50%.
The report also found that even small improvements in attendance can have a substantial impact on attainment. Moving up just one 5% attendance band, equivalent to attending school an extra two weeks a year, was associated with an increased chance of achieving the expected outcome by at least 30% at KS2 and 10% at KS4. Notably, the greatest gains at KS4 were observed when pupils moved from the 90-95% attendance band to the 95-100% band.