This NFER report, published by the Skills Imperative 2035 programme, explores the barriers and solutions to supporting more workers in high-risk occupations to change careers.
New technologies, coupled with major demographic and environmental changes, will continue to disrupt the labour market, changing the jobs that exist and the skills needed to do those jobs. These changes present opportunities to improve living standards for workers that can successfully transition from declining occupations into growing, predominantly professional, occupations.
However, there is a very significant threat to the economy and society because of the large number of workers in declining occupations, who are at greatest risk of being adversely affected.
This report indicates that around 12 million people in England work in occupations that are projected to decline between now and 2035, with more than a million jobs potentially disappearing in the coming decade. Whilst some new opportunities will be created in these occupations, displaced workers will increasingly need to consider alternative, growing occupations to remain in work.
The analysis suggests that mismatches between the skills and qualifications of workers in high-risk occupations and the job demands of growing occupations are likely to pose significant barriers to changing career. For many workers in high-risk occupations, the time and costs of reskilling or upskilling will be too great.